In October, the median home sold price in Ormond Beach was $420,000, according to realtor.com. Here are some of the homes that sold Oct. 23-29 in Ormond Beach. For a more complete list, click here

Donald Heights

Thein Rental and Home Improvement LLC, of Ormond Beach, sold 1851 Linda Ave. to Nelida Atlas and Samantha Marcarelli, of Ormond Beach, for $275,000. Built in 1980, the house is a 2/1 and has 864 square feet. It sold in 2021 for $125,000.

Oak Forest

Tru Vu and Diem Do, of Ormond Beach, sold 1320 N. Beach St. to Steve Rowe and Sarah Barnhart, as trustees, for $483,000. Built in 2015, the house is a 4/3.5 and has 2,232 square feet. It sold in 2020 for $350,000.

Ormond-by-the-Sea

Jon and Tina Ory, of Walnut Creek, California, sold 108 Longwood Drive to Cathy and Steven Dailey, of Ormond Beach, for $419,400. Built in 1956, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,398 square feet. It sold in 2016 for $79,000.

Ormond Shores

Connie Thompson, individually and as representative, Gary Caples, Mark Capels and John Caples, of Ormond Beach, sold 30 River Beach Drive to Everett and Lucille Manley, of Ormond Beach, for $310,000. Built in 1955, the house is a 2/1 and has 936 square feet.

John Adams, of Adams, Cameron & Co. Realtors, contributed to this report.

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In October, the median home sold price in Ormond Beach was $420,000, according to realtor.com. Here are some of the homes that sold Oct. 23-29 in Ormond Beach. For a more complete list, click here

Donald Heights

Thein Rental and Home Improvement LLC, of Ormond Beach, sold 1851 Linda Ave. to Nelida Atlas and Samantha Marcarelli, of Ormond Beach, for $275,000. Built in 1980, the house is a 2/1 and has 864 square feet. It sold in 2021 for $125,000.

Oak Forest

Tru Vu and Diem Do, of Ormond Beach, sold 1320 N. Beach St. to Steve Rowe and Sarah Barnhart, as trustees, for $483,000. Built in 2015, the house is a 4/3.5 and has 2,232 square feet. It sold in 2020 for $350,000.

Ormond-by-the-Sea

Jon and Tina Ory, of Walnut Creek, California, sold 108 Longwood Drive to Cathy and Steven Dailey, of Ormond Beach, for $419,400. Built in 1956, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,398 square feet. It sold in 2016 for $79,000.

Ormond Shores

Connie Thompson, individually and as representative, Gary Caples, Mark Capels and John Caples, of Ormond Beach, sold 30 River Beach Drive to Everett and Lucille Manley, of Ormond Beach, for $310,000. Built in 1955, the house is a 2/1 and has 936 square feet.

John Adams, of Adams, Cameron & Co. Realtors, contributed to this report.

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Here are some of the top sellers of the week of Oct. 23-29 in Ormond Beach and Ormond-by-the-Sea. For a more complete list for that week, click here

Halifax Plantation

Thomas and Joan Howe, of Chaska, Minnesota, sold 1121 Killarney Drive to Carmine Taglialatela and Patricia Bschorr, as trustees, for $629,900. Built in 2004, the house is a 3/2 and has a swimming pool and 2,131 square feet.

Triton Beach

John and Susan Crane, of Flagler Beach, sold 46 Neptune Ave. to Jeremy Fain, of Ormond Beach, for $595,000. Built in 1959, the house is a 3/3 and has a fireplace and 2,640 square feet.

Ormond-by-the-Sea

Ralph and Stacey Cloar, of Ormond Beach, sold 3801 Islamorada Drive to Robert and Summer Rogan, of Ormond Beach, for $767,000. Built in 2000, the house is a 5/4 and has 2,668 square feet. It sold in 2021 for $560,000.

The Trails

John and Cindy Abramovic, of Ormond Beach, sold 124 Shady Branch Trail to Joseph and Monica Coquelin, of Ormond Beach, for $749,250. Built in 1980, the house is a 5/3.5 and has a fireplace, swimming pool and 3,894 square feet.

John Adams, of Adams, Cameron & Co. Realtors, contributed to this report.

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In October, the median home sold price in Ormond Beach was $420,000, according to realtor.com. Here are some of the homes that sold Oct. 16-22 during the week of Oct. 9-15 in Ormond Beach. For a more complete list, click here.

Daytona Shores

Kerry and Chantal Kwiatkowski, of Kennett Square, Pennsylvania, sold 16 Woodridge Drive to Michael Fields, of Ormond Beach, for $449,900. Built in 1976, the house is a 3/2 and has a swimming pool and 1,436 square feet. It sold in 2013 for $135,000.

Ormond-by-the-Sea

Kaitlyn Moran, of Port St. Lucie, sold 42 Palmetto Drive to Alexander Davakis, of Ormond Beach, for $270,000. Built in 1955, the house is a 2/1 and has 700 square feet. It sold in 2014 for $127,500.

The Village

Monica Sarkis, of Sweden, and Eric Sarkis, of Ormond Beach, sold 930 Old Mill Run to Nicholas and Alyssa Argitis, of Ormond Beach, for $375,000. Built in 1977, the house is a 4/3 and has 2,202 square feet.

Woodmere South

Robert Cook, of Ormond Beach, sold 731 Lindenwood Circle to Laura Nolte, of Lopatcong Township, New Jersey, for $460,000. Built in 1973, the house is a 3/2 and has a fireplace, swimming pool and 2,368 square feet. It sold in 2018 for $249,900.

John Adams, of Adams, Cameron & Co. Realtors, contributed to this report.

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In October, the median home sold price in Ormond Beach was $420,000, according to realtor.com. Here are some of the homes that sold from $260,000 to $405,000 during the week of Oct. 9-15 in Ormond Beach. For a more complete list, click here. https://www.ormondbeachobserver.com/photo-gallery/top-transaction-dollar...

Forest Hills

Eric McKinney, of Ormond Beach, sold 320 Thackery Road to MaryAnn Vespa, of Ormond Beach, for $260,000. Built in 1960, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,140 square feet. It sold in 2018 for $155,000.

Benjamin and Madison Ranew, of Daytona Beach, sold 170 Pergola Place to Alexander and Linda Embry, of Ormond Beach, for $375,000. Built in 2016, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,537 square feet. It sold in 2019 for $237,000.

Not in Subdivision

Andrew and Lekisha Kozachuk, of Ormond Beach, sold 405 Calle Grande St. to Travis and Kaycee Hawkins, of Ormond Beach, for $290,000. Built in 1974, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,277 square feet.

The Village

Jeanette Harter, of Warrensburg, Missouri, sold 894 Willow Run to Zachary and Meghan Ignoffo, of Ormond Beach, for $315,000. Built in 1973, the house is a 3/2 and has 1,840 square feet. It sold in 2019 for $221,000.

John Adams, of Adams, Cameron & Co. Realtors, contributed to this report.

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Overview

Recently there has been a lot of discussion about the changes in the real estate market. Compared to last year, the Volusia / Flagler market has seen almost 8% fewer closings, shows an active inventory increase of 55%, median time to contract is up by 44.5%, and months supply of inventory has risen from 1.4 months to 2.3 months!

None of this is a surprise considering that interest rates have risen from 3% (or even lower) to over 6% in a matter of months. We are also seeing home builders offer incentives for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic.

However, there are a few strong reports that seem to challenge the doom and gloom that is being reported. The first came from Zillow and shows that compared to previous years we are at all time lows in inventory and at all time high prices. Another report from Mike DelPrete, from the University of Colorado in Boulder, shows that the average sales price and home sales are down compared to last year but when compared to historical averages are doing very well. 

Actual Data

There is no question that the numbers have changed compared to last year. Let's look at the numbers!

Months Supply of Inventory

Many people like to look at the months supply of inventory. A historically used rule of thumb is that less than five months is considered a seller's market. More than five months is considered a buyer's market. In the past year we have seen a substantial increase in the supply of inventory. However, that's in comparison to the best year in the history of real estate in our market. The months supply was as low as one month at points over the last few years. Today we are seeing an increase but we are still nowhere close to the five months that would be the tipping point. Instead, the months supply of inventory remains at a comparative all time low. With the exception of 2021 and 2022, we are at historically low levels. We are seeing a rise but we are still well below the long term average. In fact, let's look at it over the last fifteen years.

When you look over the long term, the data is really powerful.

Time to Contract

Another indicator that we always look into is the time to contract. Over the last few years, we've seen listings come on the market and go under contract in very short order. The time from listing to contract was actually under one week for some time. Today, we are closer to two weeks. While that's a big increase, it is trivial in terms of the typical market. Again, we need to compare the market to what's normal rather than considering what has happened in the past few years. 

Comparison

In general, comparing our current market to last year's market has become commonplace. It has been reported on almost every news outlet. However, last year was almost certainly the best year for real estate in a hundred years. Any comparison between 2021 and another year is like comparing your personal best swim lap time to that of Michael Phelps who holds the most gold records of any Olympian athlete. It is important to take the current market changes into a larger context. A narrow view may make headlines and generate viewership but it is a disservice to the general public who is trying to make decisions about one of the most important decisions in their lives.

Summary

The market is shifting. It is very difficult to determine what will happen in the next few years. There have been discussions about a potential crash or price decline in a way that we saw fifteen years ago. The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has predicted that we will have a "soft landing." The intent of the Federal Reserve is to calm inflation and their actions will affect home prices as lending becomes more expensive. 

On the whole, there is a shift and we need to be prepared for it. However, we also need to be cognizant of the fact that we are adjusting from the strongest real estate market that we've ever seen. To expect housing price growth in excess of 20% to continue forever is not reasonable. No market can maintain that growth rate and wages have not increased to support that level of growth. If we did see wages rising at 20% or more per year, we would be subject to not only inflation but potentially hyperinflation. The current market corrections are healthy and are not likely to lead to a market crash but will likely lead to reduced price increases.

Where do we go from here? Like your investments into a 401(k) or IRA, the best bet is to stay the course and continue as you would have. If growth returns to historic norms of 4-8% price increases, it still works well for homeowners. Even if there is a short-term correction as the stock market and bond markets have seen, we are likely to see a mild difference. 

Unless you have a crystal ball, it's best to stay the course and move forward.

Overview

Months Supply of Inventory is a long-used gauge of market performance and condition. The long-standing rule of thumb is that if there are five months or more of market inventory, we have a buyer's market. If there are less than five months, it is a seller's market. In recent years, we have been solidly in the realm of a seller's market. Recently, we've seen a change in the statistic that may or may not be relevant. Specifically, we've seen month's supply of inventory increase. Normally, we expect fluctuations but we are coming off a period of constant reductions for some time. This recent increase has people concerned about the market as a whole. 

Why is the Housing Inventory Changing?

This year, in order to get inflation under control, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. To consider that in context, we have had the lowest Fed Funds rate in history for several years in a row in order to stimulate the economy during the COVID pandemic. These increases have to be expected. However, they will affect the housing market more directly than many other items. You may purchase groceries or gas on your credit card but that is a totally different experience from applying for a mortgage to buy a new house. Higher interest rates at the Fed level will eventually be factored into the return on T-Bills which will also effect the mortgage interest rate. As a result, there is a decrease in demand in the housing market. 

What does the Mortgage Rate mean to me?

When the Mortgage Rate increases, it reduces the purchasing power of potential buyers. The amount of money they can borrow for the same monthly payments decreases. That means fewer homes are in their price range. As a result, demand for homes decreases.

If you are a Buyer, this may or may not be a bad thing. If you have access to cash, your purchasing power actually increases in comparison to those who are financing. Whether you are financing or not, it will remove some people from the market and allow you more flexibility to go and look at properties and determine which is better for you. The likelihood of bidding wars and offers that are sight-unseen will actually decrease. We can help you to find the best possible fit more so than we could have a year ago.

For Sellers, this means that there are more properties on the market. The chances of having that offer come in on day one of the listing are declining. However, if five months of inventory is a buyer's market. Note that we have moved from less than one month to just over two! That still puts you in the driver's seat in many ways. Now is a good time to sell.

What is going to happen to the housing market in the future?

Anyone who tells you where we will be in five years, or even one, is guessing. There are economists who predict that we will see continued increases, and there are others who predict gloom and doom. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, has stated that he is looking for a "soft landing." By that, he means a return to a more normal environment.  However, if you've watched the housing market since 2002, it is very difficult to determine exactly what that means. Truly, it is anyone's guess. However, with uncertainty there is opportunity. 

What should I do from here with regard to my purchase or sale?

The answer is simple. Find a real estate professional that you trust who works with a strong company and strong management. You want to make sure that you are not only getting strong representation from your agent but also that they have local, knowledgeable managers who can help guide you through the process. The market is still strong but is going through an adjustment. You want to have the best possible team on your side moving forward. You wouldn't work with a financial advisor who didn't follow the market or an accountant who doesn't stay abreast of the new IRS rules and regulations. Make sure you have a team working for you.

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